If Obama wins California, Hillary will have to make some major adjustments.  I still count him as an underdog in California. California is supposed to be Clinton country, so if Obama upsets her? Wow?!

Lies!  All lies!  This poll is a fluke!  The other polls are all flukes!!

this is coming from a person who did believe the gallup and rasmussen poll 2 days ago showing it a 3 point race.

When rasmussen had california at 5 and everyone else was at 9+ and most in double digits, I didn't believe rasmussen.

Use common sense folks.

If YESTERDAY Rasmussen had a national number of
clinton 45
Obama 37
which meant yesterday for 1 day, clinton had to lead by around 10, and she's been leading in his poll everyday.

HOW COULD SHE BE LOSING IN CALIFORNIA?

She isn't.

Right now, I'd risk whatever money I have she is up double digits in California.

Not saying it couldn't change.

But I believe mason-dixon:
clinton 45
Obama 36

and then add a debate bounce.

I'm not spinning anything- we'll see the real thing in two days.  

I own up to everything.

I can explain it. Even though its' old news.

The facts show the Clintons let SC go.
They didn't tell me.

They allowed "for the good of the party" Obama's wave to rise.

They pulled the 1 radio ad they had.  They listened to Clyburn and the rest.
Also, I didn't hear anything about their GOTV in the last day.

So I didn't get the memo that we were surrendering until on election day.

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Please answer using facts:
IF you believe Rasmussen California, which is not out yet btw.

Then you must believe rasmussen national.
which had hillary up +8 over 4 days. The trends show she had to be +10 yesterday.
No way to square those two.

Gallup gives credence to Rasmussen national, so I disbelieve California.

Let's take a step back.

I believe HRC will win California -- as a Kos poster wrote, Obama would have to win CA by 5 points in order to offset HRC's advantage in early voting.

That said, so?

Here's my thing:  she has to score a TKO on 2/5.  The $ favors Obama, the terrain from 2/5-3/4 favors Obama.

If he keeps the delegate margin to under 100, I think he wins the nomination.  He can make up a significant portion before 3/4 and then in becomes TX, OH where he gains ground over time and has more cash on hand.

HRC's $ #s.  Let's presume she raised $10M in January (I think I heard that on MTP).  She started January with a $18M cash on hand.  Well, the 2/5 burn rate means that she's probably spent $15-20M in January.

I don't know if this has been asked enough.  How much money does she have to compete in the March states?

there is NO WAY either one of them is winning/losing based on money.

It's like a nuclear arms race, once you get to the tipping point, the rest of the bombs don't matter.

This Morning on Meet the Press James Carville said the Field poll that showed Clinton with only a 2 point lead was not credible. You dont see wild swings from day to day with only 2 days left before the election.

Where is this new CA poll?

The MSNBC poll has Clinton up by 9%.

hillary is winning +9 in Missouri

but losing California by a point?

You have to figure out something to believe, but not both.

you're forgetting independents and "undeclared voters", they are breaking 5 to 2 for Obama, and most polls say they will make 13% of the vote in Cali.

Also Hillary only leads by low single digits amongst women and is now losing men.

anyway, point is, anything could happen....

I wondered about that too (why is Obama not campaigning more in the state); all I can say is, I think they know what they are doing. The Obama campaign is chasing delegates not states. It is entirely plausible that Hllary wins the Popular vote in Cali (and the country at large) but Obama wins more delegates.

Don't forget that while they have both split the first 4 contests, 2 to 2, Obama has not yet lost the delegate count in any state. He won - in terms of delegates - Iowa, tied NH, won Nevada and won SC.

plus Oprah, Caroline and Michelle will light LA up this evening. They are going after the female vote.

John Kerry did San Jose and Frisco yesterday, Ted Kennedy did East LA

La Opinion (largest Hispanic news paper in Cali and the country) endorsed Obama, LA Times endorsed Obama, there's so much going on....

The new daily tracking poll is out BTW from Rasmussen.

Clinton up by 11%, another 3% bump

I see CNN is replaying the Thursday Dem debate tonight.  Up against the Super Bowl I know, but it is still good free media for Hillary.

Speaking of which, I agree that money is not a consideration for either Obama or Clinton at this point.

hillary had to win the debate.

she must be gaining edwards supporters.

THEREFORE

you shouldn't trust any pre debate numbers.

For the second day, hillary had to be over 50 percent to get this ras number.

no way mccain and romney are even in california